Well, this may sound like a crazy idea, but might work for some channels. Most of them have exactly the same time for ads (don't know if they have a timing for the actual show though) and you could jut time it, and eventually get it right.
But let's say that you know BBC has 2 minutes interval and that they usually show it every 20 minutes. It'd just be all about counting this time.
It'd work fine for a movie, as some channels here have exactly 1 interval for the whole thing.
Sports can be even easier, as you know that a football match stops every 45 minutes (may and will vary a little bit, but hey, give it 5 minutes more and you're done)
With some time you'll be able to know most of the timings for everything.
Note, this is the poorman's idea, but you may end up having some fun with that.